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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."